July 16, 2010

Sen. David Vitter re-election campaign shifted from 'likely' category by political analyst

New Orleans Times-Picayune  |  Link to article

In another sign that Republican Sen. David Vitter has had a rough time over the past few weeks, the independent Cook Political Report (subscription required) has shifted its ranking of his re-election prospects from "Likely Republican" to "Lean Republican."

While noting that Vitter "seems ideologically well-suited to" Louisiana and is running on "friendly terrain" in a state that gave John McCain a 19-point margin over Barack Obama in the 2008 presidential election, senior editor Jennifer Duffy notes that recent "events have occurred that add an enormous amount of uncertainty to the race."

Those events include: the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, "which has impacted Louisiana's economy and ecosystem more than other Gulf Coast states" perhaps roiling voters' views of government and incumbents; questions about Vitter's handling of revelations that he had employed a staffer who was convicted of holding a woman hostage and stabbing her, and who had an outstanding warrant for drunk driving; and the fact that "Vitter got a credible primary challenge from former state Supreme Court judge Chet Traylor."

It remains to be seen whether Traylor, who is not well-known in the state, can raise enough money to mount a challenge to Vitter in the closed primary. Traylor, a former State Trooper, has said he expects to be competitive.

Democrats are hoping Traylor will force Vitter to spend at least some money and energy in the Aug. 28 GOP primary, although the incumbent remains a heavy favorite to prevail and move on to the Nov. 2 general election.

Rep. Charlie Melancon, D-Napoleonville, is expected to emerge on the Democratic side, where he will join candidates from the Libertarian and Reform parties, along with independents to challenge Vitter.

Duffy concludes: "Vitter is not without his strengths and he does get to run on friendly terrain. We'll keep a close watch on this to see whether any or all of the recent events have an impact, but for now it seems this race no longer belongs in the Likely Republican column, so it is moving to Lean Republican."